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Last month witnessed a notable decrease in migrant encounters with US border authorities, as reported by Customs and Border Protection (CBP). The decline from December to January was significant, with encounters between ports of entry contributing to 98% of this reduction.

January’s figures stood at 242,587 total encounters, a sharp fall from December’s 370,925. Specifically, Border Patrol recorded 125,444 encounters between ports of entry in January, down from 251,173 in December, while encounters at legal points of entry slightly decreased to 117,143 from December’s 119,752.

The reasons behind the steep decline in Border Patrol encounters are multifaceted, involving increased immigration enforcement by Mexico after discussions with the Biden administration and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, as well as seasonal trends observed over the past three years.

Adam Isacson, director of defense oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America, points out that the dynamics of information sharing among migrants, reactions to US immigration policy news, and how smugglers manipulate information play a critical role. Isacson said, “Some is seasonal — numbers in the Darien declined all fall. But that doesn’t explain why everybody insisted on crossing in December, leaving few left in January,” suggesting the influence of rumors on migration patterns.

Digging Deeper:
Before breaking record numbers of migrant encounters along the southern border, the Biden administration experienced a similar low migrant encounter number during President Biden’s first month in office and after the end of Title 42. Some have attributed this to a “wait and see” approach by smugglers to new regulations and political climates.