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The UN’s nuclear watchdog is warning that North Korea has made a “very serious increase” in its ability to produce nuclear weapons.

Some shit you should know before you dig in: If you’re unaware, North Korea is believed to have assembled around 50 nuclear warheads and has been under UN sanctions since conducting its first nuclear test in 2006. The country cut off access to IAEA inspectors in 2009 and has vowed it will never give up its nuclear weapons. Under Kim Jong-un, who took power in 2011, the program has accelerated in defiance of international pressure and many believe Kim is doing this to make regime change by the US too costly to attempt. Some experts remain skeptical of North Korea’s claims related to its nuclear program, but the country has made clear advances in missile technology and continues expanding its stockpile.

What’s going on now: While speaking in South Korea on Wednesday, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said his agency’s periodic assessments have confirmed a rapid increase in operations at North Korea’s main nuclear complex at Yongbyon (including its 5-megawatt reactor, reprocessing unit, and light-water reactor). On top of that, the IAEA has observed construction of what Grossi described as “a new facility similar to the enrichment facility in Yongbyon,” and analysis of the building’s external features suggests a significant expansion of the country’s uranium enrichment capacity.

“All that points to a very serious increase in the capabilities of the DPRK in the area of nuclear weapons production, which is estimated at a few dozen warheads,” Grossi said.

When asked whether Russia was helping North Korea develop nuclear weapons, Grossi said the IAEA had not seen “anything in particular in that regard,” though he added it was “too early days to judge.” Notably, North Korea has been sending troops and artillery shells to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, and in return, Pyongyang is receiving military technology from Moscow.

This all comes as South Korea’s president warned in January that North Korea is producing enough material to build 10 to 20 nuclear weapons per year. “At some point, North Korea will have secured the nuclear arsenal it believes it needs to sustain the regime, along with ICBM capabilities capable of threatening not only the United States but the wider world,” Lee Jae Myung said. “And once there is excess, it will go abroad….beyond its borders. A global danger will then emerge.”