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A new report released by a Pentagon-affiliated think tank has warned that China’s growing number of commercial ports in Africa could serve as a foundation for future military bases.

Some shit you should know before you read: If you didn’t know, China maintains 231 commercial ports across Africa, making the continent its largest maritime hub outside of China. Over the years, China has acquired control over these ports through massive investments under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Launched in 2013, the BRI is a global infrastructure strategy designed to expand China’s economic and geopolitical influence by financing major projects in developing countries. Through BRI, Chinese state-owned companies provide funding, construction, and operational management, often securing long-term leases, equity stakes, or full control over critical maritime infrastructure. While BRI has improved Africa’s trade connectivity, it has been widely criticized for creating debt dependency, giving China strategic leverage, and enabling potential military expansion under the guise of commercial development. Djibouti’s Doraleh Port is a key example—originally built as a commercial project, it later became China’s first overseas military base in 2017.

What’s going on now: In a report released by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, analysts warned that China’s growing control over 231 commercial ports in Africa could serve as a stepping stone for future military installations, following the precedent set in Djibouti (China’s first military installation in Africa). The report points to how China has a history of initially presenting port developments as purely commercial before repurposing them for military use, as seen in the Doraleh Port, which transitioned into China’s first overseas military base in 2017.

Analysts warn that a similar pattern could likely unfold in other strategically located ports, particularly those in Angola, Kenya, and Namibia, where China holds significant stakes and has already conducted naval exercises. The concern is that these commercial ports—many of which are built and operated by Chinese state-owned enterprises—have dual-use capabilities, meaning they could be rapidly converted into logistics hubs for China’s navy.

The report points out that many of China’s port investments are in locations that would give China greater access to key maritime trade routes, resource-rich regions, and potential naval resupply points. Ports in West Africa, the Indian Ocean, and along the Suez Corridor are of particular importance, as they would allow China’s Navy to extend its reach beyond the Pacific and South China Sea into the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.

Analysts warned that this kind of expansion could challenge Western military dominance in the region and allow China to project power globally. The think tank also said that China’s political and economic influence in host countries—secured through debt-based agreements—could give Beijing leverage to negotiate exclusive military access or long-term basing rights.

This all comes as US military officials have previously warned about China’s growing military ambitions in Africa. Back in 2021, Army Gen. Stephen J. Townsend, former leader of AFRICOM warned that China was working “aggressively” to obtain another military port in Africa. He also told lawmakers that “the thing I think I’m most worried about is this military base on the Atlantic coast,” noting that the place where China has “the most traction for that is in Equatorial Guinea.”

Digging Deeper: China’s military engagement in Africa has steadily increased over the past two decades, with the PLA Navy conducting 55 port calls and 19 military exercises in African waters since 2000. According to the report, several Chinese-controlled ports have already hosted Chinese naval drills, including those in Dar es Salaam (Tanzania), Lagos (Nigeria), Durban (South Africa), and Djibouti. Beyond naval exercises, China has actively engaged in military training, arms sales, and defense cooperation with multiple African nations, further embedding itself in the continent’s security landscape.