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A top US official has reportedly presented President Biden with potential military options for striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, should Tehran advance toward developing a nuclear weapon before President-Elect Trump takes office.
Some shit you should know before you read: Over the last 12 years, concerns about Iran’s nuclear program have intensified as the country has made significant advancements in uranium enrichment. Iran has enriched Uranium to 60% purity, far exceeding the 3.67% limit typically required for peaceful nuclear energy purposes under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This level is alarmingly close to the 90% enrichment threshold needed for a nuclear weapon. Despite accumulating enough 60%-enriched Uranium to potentially produce four nuclear weapons, Iran maintains that its nuclear program is solely for civilian purposes. However, its history of secret activities, including the concealment of nuclear facilities and the expulsion of international inspectors, has fueled skepticism.
What’s going on now: According to Axios, citing multiple sources, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan presented President Biden with options for a potential US strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities during a secret meeting roughly a month ago. The meeting was described as “prudent scenario planning” rather than an urgent response to new intelligence and aimed to assess possible US actions should Iran move closer to weaponizing its nuclear program. While Biden did not approve any strike during the discussion, the deliberations reflected the administration’s serious concerns about Iran’s nuclear advancements and the potential geopolitical consequences of inaction. The sources emphasized that no immediate decisions were made, and the discussion was intended to explore scenarios rather than finalize strategies.
Interestingly, there is a notable difference of opinion among US officials regarding the urgency and feasibility of a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Some advisers argue that Iran’s advancement to 60% uranium enrichment, combined with its weakened regional proxies, presents a rare window to degrade its nuclear capabilities without significant regional backlash. Others caution against the risks of escalation, especially given Iran’s potential for retaliatory measures against US assets and allies.
Israeli officials, meanwhile, have emphasized the urgency, pointing to Iran’s history of hiding nuclear activities and conducting research that could reduce the time needed to develop a nuclear weapon.
This all comes roughly 18 days before President-elect Donald Trump is set to take office, with his administration signaling a return to a stringent “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. Plans are underway to reimpose harsh economic sanctions, aiming to cut off Iran’s oil exports and isolate its economy. The strategy includes enforcing stricter measures to prevent countries, notably China, from purchasing Iranian crude oil, thereby diminishing Tehran’s primary revenue source. Additionally, the incoming administration intends to bolster support for Israel and maintain a credible threat of military force as a deterrent.
