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Iranian-backed militias in Iraq are crossing into Syria to bolster President Bashar al-Assad’s struggling forces after a fast-moving rebel offensive led primarily by groups with ties to various terrorist organizations.
Let’s bring you up to speed: Last week, a major rebel uprising erupted in Syria, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group with ties to Al-Qaeda. This offensive, the largest since 2020, has resulted in significant territorial gains, including the capture of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, and several surrounding towns such as Khan Sheikhun and Maaret al-Numan. HTS and other allied factions have taken dozens of areas with little resistance from government forces, forcing Syrian troops to retreat and establish a defensive line near Hama. HTS, designated a terrorist organization, has deep ties to extremist networks and continues to control significant portions of the Idlib region. Their actions have reignited fears of escalating violence and further destabilization in a country already ravaged by over a decade of war.

What’s going on now: Fotage on social media has captured the movement of Iran-backed militias from Iraq crossing into Syria, including fighters from groups such as Kataib Hezbollah, Fatemiyoun Brigade, Badr Organization, and Nujabaa Movement. These forces, totaling hundreds of fighters, reportedly crossed through the Bukamal border region using dirt roads to avoid airstrikes and detection. Their objective is to reinforce Assad’s army on northern frontlines, particularly in Aleppo and Idlib, following recent defeats to rebel groups.
Digging real deep: Despite not sharing a border, Iran considers Syria a pillar of its regional strategy, serving as a critical pipeline for its influence in the Middle East. Syria’s geographic location enables Iran to maintain a direct supply line to Hezbollah in Lebanon, bolstering its deterrence against Israel and solidifying its “Axis of Resistance.” Some analysts, including current US officials, say the Assad regime’s survival is essential to Iran’s ability to project power, secure its ideological and military interests, and counterbalance regional rivals like Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
In addition to Iran, Turkey is another key player in this conflict, with significant strategic interests in Syria tied to its national security and regional influence. Turkey views northern Syria as critical for preventing the emergence of a Kurdish-led autonomous region, which it fears could fuel separatist aspirations among its own Kurdish population. Labeling the Kurds as terrorists, Turkey has clashed with the US and other Western nations that support them. To counter Kurdish expansion, Turkey has been accused of supporting Syrian rebel factions, including Islamist groups like HTS, by providing arms, training, and logistical aid.