Already a subscriber? Make sure to log into your account before viewing this content. You can access your account by hitting the “login” button on the top right corner. Still unable to see the content after signing in? Make sure your card on file is up-to-date.

A new report by the Commission on the National Defense Strategy indicates that the US Army is currently undermanned for potential war with China or Russia.

What’s the deal: The Commission’s report calls for substantial increases in military investment, particularly in areas such as air defense, counter-unmanned aerial systems, electronic warfare, and long-range fires, drawing on lessons from the Ukraine conflict. Despite the Pentagon’s substantial budget, the report also highlights that a proposed reduction of the Army to 443,000 soldiers is “insufficient,” noting a greater need for a larger force capable of managing intensive campaigns and urban battles across the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

What the report said: According to the report, “The Commission finds that, in many ways, China is outpacing the United States and has largely negated the US military advantage in the Western Pacific through two decades of focused military investment. Without significant change by the United States, the balance of power will continue to shift in China’s favor. China’s overall annual spending on defense is estimated at as much as $711 billion, and the Chinese government in March 2024 announced an increase in annual defense spending of 7.2%.”

Other takeaways: According to the Commission

• The US defense industrial base cannot meet the needs of a protracted, multi-theater conflict, which will require increased investment and joint production with allies to meet the need.
• An all-out war with a peer or near-peer would have devastating consequences, including massive personnel and military costs, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, and global economic recession.
• Alliances, such as those strengthened in the Pacific, NATO, and new arrangements like AUKUS, are crucial for the US to compete with China and Russia and must be integrated into the US force structure.
• Legislative changes are needed to remove barriers to innovation, budgeting, procurement, and information-sharing with allies to strengthen national security.

What the Commission recommended:

• The Secretary of Defense and Joint Staff should have more power to cancel unnecessary programs and invest in crucial areas like cyber, space, and software.
• The DoD needs to reassess all major systems to ensure they’re ready for future needs, focusing on agility, interoperability, and survivability.
• Congress should remove the budget caps set by the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act for the FY 2025 budget.
• Congress should approve additional funding for national security innovation and industrial base expansion. This includes supporting US allies, increasing industrial capacity, enhancing military facilities in Asia, securing critical minerals, and investing in a digital and industrial workforce.

What’s China’s military look like: As of recent estimates, China’s military, is one of the largest in the world with approximately 2 million active-duty personnel and 510,000 reserve personnel. This force includes the PLA Ground Force, Navy, Air Force, Rocket Force, and Strategic Support Force.

What’s Russia’s military look like: Russia’s military, known as the Russian Armed Forces, has around 1 million active-duty personnel and an additional 2 million in reserves. The military is composed of the Ground Forces, Navy, Aerospace Forces, Strategic Missile Troops, and Airborne Troops. It also controls various mercenary groups, including the Wagner Group.

What the US military looks like: As of recent estimates, the United States military consists of approximately 1.3 million active-duty personnel. This includes members of the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, and Space Force. In addition to the active-duty forces, there are around 800,000 personnel in the reserve components and the National Guard.