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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has warned in a report that Russia is making significant gains in Ukraine and emphasized the urgency of resumed US aid to prevent further Russian advancements.

According to the ISW, current US congressional delays are critically endangering Ukraine’s defensive capabilities by withholding essential military supplies, including air defense munitions and artillery shells.

Frederick Kagan of the ISW described the severe impacts of these shortages in his analysis. “Lack of air defense has exposed Ukrainian front-line units to Russian aircraft that are now dropping thousands of bombs on Ukrainian defensive positions for the first time in this war,” Kagan reported. He also noted that due to artillery shortages, Russian forces are able to deploy armored columns more effectively than at any point since the beginning of 2022.

Since the onset of 2024, Russia has managed to seize territory in eastern Ukraine roughly the size of Detroit, with Kagan warning of accelerated Russian advances without prompt US intervention. “US policymakers must internalize the reality that further delaying or stopping American military assistance will lead to dramatic Russian gains later in 2024 and in 2025 and, ultimately, to Russian victory,” he wrote.

While the Senate approved a significant national security package earlier in the year, the House of Representatives has yet to act on it, complicating the delivery of further assistance to Ukraine. Speaker Mike Johnson has expressed intentions to address the aid package, although this move could jeopardize his position due to opposition within his party.

On a strategic level, the situation on the ground continues to evolve rapidly. Russian forces are advancing towards Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region, a move that could open a pathway to larger strategic locations such as Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has expressed concerns that Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing a waiting game, betting on the weakening resolve of Western allies.