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January witnessed a substantial decrease in orders for long-lasting US manufactured goods, marking the most significant decline in nearly four years, primarily due to a steep reduction in commercial aircraft bookings. This downturn adds to a string of data indicating an economic slowdown at the year’s outset.

The Commerce Department reported a 6.1% drop in durable goods orders, the sharpest fall since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in April 2020. This decline was unexpected, with forecasts predicting a lesser 4.5% decrease. Notably, civilian aircraft orders plummeted by 58.9%, with Boeing experiencing a dramatic fall in orders from 371 in December to just three in January. This comes as the company faces quality control scrutiny, leading to regulatory restrictions on its 737 MAX production.

The overall transportation sector saw a 16.2% decline in orders, contributing to the broader downturn. Excluding transportation, the decrease was more moderate at 0.3%. There was a mix of performances across categories, with some like computers and electronic products showing growth.

While adverse weather conditions and seasonal adjustment challenges have been cited for some downturns, economists remain split, with some foreseeing a recession and others not.