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President Trump has said that ending the war in Ukraine is “getting much closer than people realize,” a take he floated after spending the weekend on the phone with both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Some shit you should know before you dig in: The Russia-Ukraine war continues to intensify after roughly four brutal years of fighting that have caused heavy casualties on both sides. In the lead-up to Trump’s 2024 win, Ukraine began ramping up strikes within Russia with a specific taste for the shit that funds Russia’s war effort. Think energy infrastructure, railroads, and other logistics-critical targets. Over the last year and a half, these strikes have intensified, causing serious energy problems for Russia and prompting Putin to acknowledge shortages in some areas. Some analysts estimate that Russia has lost about 30% of its refining capacity, which, if true, could be a real nightmare for the Kremlin. This is all going on as Russia slowly captures Ukrainian territory, at a heavy cost to both sides. Ukraine is also facing a shortage of interceptor missiles (specifically Patriots), which are critical for downing Russian ballistic missiles. These shortages have worsened because of the war between the US and Iran, which depleted some of these resources and led the US to pause orders while it resupplied itself and its allies in the Middle East.
What’s going on now: Trump said he spoke with Putin on July 4 in a call the Kremlin said lasted 90 minutes, and used the time to dangle US help in getting to a peace deal. He also spoke with Zelenskyy over the weekend, and both leaders, by Trump’s account, want the fighting to stop.
“I think we’re getting much closer than people realize,” Trump told reporters. “President Putin wants it to end. I will tell you that very strongly. And President Zelenskyy actually wants it to end now.” Notably, Zelenskyy and Trump are set to sit down Wednesday while NATO leaders gather in Ankara, Turkey.
Zelenskyy called the weekend conversation with Trump “very good” and told the Financial Times he thought Ukraine’s recent gains on the battlefield had Trump seeing the whole thing in a different light. “President Trump wants to be where there’s success,” Zelenskyy said, chalking it up to Trump’s personality, his standing, and the US midterms bearing down.
The diplomacy is unfolding against continued bloodshed. Overnight, Russia launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Kyiv, killing somewhere between 11 and 28 people. Ukraine, meanwhile, kept up its own strikes, hitting an oil terminal and naval base in St. Petersburg over the weekend and torching refineries in Yaroslavl and Leningrad overnight.
The two sides also traded competing claims over Kostiantynivka, a city both treat as a linchpin in the eastern Donetsk region. Putin, decked out in fatigues, congratulated his troops Friday for taking the place, and Russia’s defense ministry insisted its forces held every corner of it. Ukraine flatly denied it. “If Kostyantynivka were under Russian control, then perhaps Putin would have no problem meeting me there to find a diplomatic way to finally end this war,” Zelenskyy said, dismissing the claim as “just another Russian lie.”
All of this comes as the Kremlin insists Trump’s position hasn’t shifted, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov swatting away suggestions the US president changes his views “like a weather vane” and saying the two leaders are prepared to keep talking soon.
