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A new analysis warns that the US is looking at a minimum of three years to rebuild its stockpiles of critical weapons systems after burning through them during its bombing campaign against Iran.

Getting into it: The report, released Wednesday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), found that the 38-day campaign known as Operation Epic Fury significantly drew down three key systems: Tomahawk cruise missiles (used to strike deep inside enemy territory) and the THAAD and Patriot interceptors that knock down incoming missiles and drones. The US fired more than 1,000 Tomahawks, far outpacing the roughly 86 it has bought per year over the past decade, and CSIS estimates it could take until 2030 or 2031 to fully replace them. It also used up to 290 THAAD interceptors (which won’t return to prewar levels until late 2029) and more than 1,000 Patriot interceptors (not replenished until around mid-2029).

The think tank stressed that the core problem “isn’t money; it’s time.” Trump’s record $1.5 trillion defense budget proposal for 2027 dramatically ramps up munitions spending, and both parties in Congress agree on refilling the stockpiles, but as the report put it, “it takes time to expand production capacity and to build these complex systems.” That leaves a “window of vulnerability for several years until inventories return to their previous levels,” a gap the administration is trying to close through framework agreements with industry.

The bigger strategic worry is China. CSIS warned that the depleted inventories “created a window of vulnerability for a potential Western Pacific conflict,” a finding that landed just as Xi Jinping cautioned that mishandled relations over Taiwan could push the US and China into open conflict. Still, the report argued the picture is “not all bleak,” noting the US has recently shown off its capabilities against Iran, Venezuela, and the Houthis, while “China is deeply aware that it has no recent combat experience and that it performed poorly in its last war, against Vietnam in 1979.”

Complicating the rebuild is the fact that the US also has to keep arming its allies, with Ukraine still needing Patriots against Russia and 17 other countries relying on the same interceptor (deliveries have already been resequenced to “prioritize U.S. needs,” and a planned shipment of Tomahawks to Japan may be delayed).

This all comes as the White House pushed back hard on the findings, with Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly insisting the military “has more than enough munitions” and dismissing “think tank armchair quarterbacks” who “have no idea what they’re talking about.”

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth struck a more measured tone, conceding replenishment will take “months and years” but adding that manufacturers are building new production lines “so that we’re getting weapons faster than ever.”