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A former Defense Secretary has warned that if Cuba falls apart, a mass influx of migrants from the country could begin to flood Florida.
Getting into it: During an interview on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” Robert Gates told host Margaret Brennan that he’s less worried about Cuba launching anything against American interests than he is about the island imploding under economic pressure and triggering a mass exodus.
He said, “The biggest risk is that we end up with another Mariel evacuation from Cuba that has tens of thousands of Cubans heading to the United States out of desperation.”
Gates was referring to the 1980 Mariel Boatlift, when roughly 125,000 Cubans fled to the US as the country’s economy fell apart, overwhelming social services in Florida and forcing both state and federal emergency declarations. Gates acknowledged Cuba has impacted US national security in other ways, pointing to Cuban security forces that formed the protective ring around ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro because he didn’t trust his own people, but he stopped short of calling the island an imminent threat. Collapse, he said, is the real concern.
This comes as the collapse is already underway, with Cuba’s energy minister Vicente de la O Levy confirming this week that the island has completely run out of diesel and fuel oil, with only limited gasoline available, a direct consequence of Trump’s oil blockade, which analysts say has put Cuba in worse shape than it’s been since Soviet support for the country dried up decades ago. Mexico and Venezuela, the country’s traditional fuel suppliers, have largely cut off shipments after Trump threatened tariffs on any nation sending oil to Cuba.
Blackouts now run up to 20 hours in some parts of the country, hospitals have suspended non-emergency surgeries, and last week hundreds of Havana residents flooded the streets, lighting fires in the road and chanting against the government.
Notably, CIA Director John Ratcliffe flew to Havana last week for a rare meeting with senior Cuban officials, including the head of Cuban intelligence and the grandson of former president Raúl Castro. The delegation delivered a message that the US is willing to expand economic and security cooperation, but only if Havana makes what one CIA official called “fundamental changes.”
