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The United States and Mexico have reached an agreement to resolve a long-standing water dispute.

Some shit you should know before you dig in: Back in 1944, the United States and Mexico signed a Water Treaty to manage shared river resources, requiring Mexico to deliver 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the US from the Rio Grande every five years, while the US supplies 1.5 million acre-feet annually from the Colorado River. In recent years, tensions have escalated as the US accuses Mexico of repeated shortfalls in meeting its delivery obligations (falling behind by as much as 865,000 acre-feet), causing severe water shortages for farmers and ranchers in Texas. These deficits, exacerbated by drought and infrastructure challenges on Mexico’s side, have angered American officials who argue the ongoing shortfalls violate the treaty. This has led to President Trump threatening to impose significant tariffs on Mexico.

What’s going on now: In a notable development, Mexico has agreed to immediately release 202,000 acre-feet of water to the United States starting the week of December 15, 2025, as part of a broader effort to settle the growing dispute under the 1944 Water Treaty. This commitment follows weeks of intensified negotiations and direct pressure from the Trump administration, which had threatened a 5% tariff on Mexican imports if the water deficit was not addressed. The agreement also includes a pledge from both governments to finalize a long-term water distribution plan by the end of January, covering not only the current delivery shortfall but also outstanding obligations from the previous treaty cycle.

As part of the next steps, both countries will work through the International Boundary and Water Commission to monitor compliance and finalize operational details. However, the US has made it clear that any further shortfalls will be met with economic penalties.

Throughout the negotiations, Mexico’s government maintained that it had not violated the treaty, citing severe drought conditions and treaty provisions that allow for deferred deliveries in extraordinary drought circumstances. Sheinbaum also ruled out any renegotiation of the treaty, arguing that Mexico receives more water than it gives and must also prioritize domestic needs.

This comes as the Trump administration has framed the agreement as a diplomatic win. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins and Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau praised the deal as a victory for American farmers, warning that failure to meet future commitments would trigger renewed tariffs.