Already a subscriber? Make sure to log into your account before viewing this content. You can access your account by hitting the “login” button on the top right corner. Still unable to see the content after signing in? Make sure your card on file is up-to-date.
A top US official has indicated that Syria may be on the verge of descending into another civil war amid rising internal tensions and regional instability.
Some shit you should know before you read: Back in December, former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown in a rapid offensive led by Islamist-backed rebel forces, marking the end of his nearly 25-year rule. In the aftermath, Ahmed al-Shara, a one-time terrorist affiliated with the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was declared Syria’s transitional president in January. HTS, which splintered from al-Qaeda but remains a US-designated terrorist organization, has raised concerns in Washington about the legitimacy and stability of the new leadership. Despite these ties, President Donald Trump announced last week during a visit to Saudi Arabia that he would lift longstanding US sanctions on Syria, framing it as a move to give the transitional government a chance to succeed and avoid total collapse. Trump also met with President al-Shara**,.**
What’s going on now: While testifying on Capitol Hill, Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned about Syria’s rapidly deteriorating stability, stressing the fragile state of the transitional government and the looming threat of renewed civil war. “It is our assessment that, frankly, the transitional authority, given the challenges they’re facing, are maybe weeks — not many months — away from potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions, basically the country splitting up,” Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
His remarks come as sectarian violence surges in the wake of Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, with bloody attacks targeting Syria’s Alawite and Druze minorities. Rubio blamed Assad’s legacy for fueling deep internal distrust, stating that the former leader “deliberately pitted these groups against each other,” leaving behind a fractured society with unresolved grievances and power vacuums ripe for exploitation.
Rubio also touched on the US recently changing its diplomatic stance towards Syria, saying, “If we engage them, it may work out, it may not work out. If we did not engage them, it was guaranteed to not work out.”
This all comes as Turkey (which shares a border with Syria) has become hellbent on increasing its role in northern Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has made clear that he will not tolerate Syria’s disintegration and would take “necessary steps swiftly” if the country’s territorial unity was threatened.
Turkey, which supports the current rebel-led transitional authority, is hostile to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), particularly the People’s Protection Units (YPG). Turkish forces have previously conducted multiple cross-border incursions into Syria. There have been indicated that Turkey could be preparing further action to eliminate the YPG presence. Most notably, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently said the group’s eradication is “imminent.”
