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Ray Dalio, the billionaire investor and founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, said he sees a growing likelihood that the United States will plunge into a civil war.

In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Dalio, 74, shared his research, which suggests a 35 to 40 percent chance of a civil war in the US. He said, “We are now on the brink,” though he noted that it remains uncertain if the nation will enter more turbulent times. He clarified that a modern-day civil war wouldn’t necessarily involve armed conflict but rather an acceleration of political polarization.

104709929 Gettyimages 490149994 Ray Dalio

Dalio argued that this polarization could lead people to relocate to states that align more closely with their political beliefs, resulting in a scenario where federal authority is increasingly disregarded. He emphasized the importance of the upcoming November election, describing it as the most critical in his lifetime, as its outcome could significantly influence the likelihood of these risks materializing.

While Dalio refrained from endorsing either President Biden or former President Trump, he did advise investors to consider diversifying their portfolios internationally due to the US government’s rising debt levels, which he believes could impact treasury bonds.

Dalio’s warnings are not new. He has long predicted a shift away from a US-centric global economy, with businesses and governments reducing their reliance on the American dollar. In a January 2023 interview, he recommended investing in countries with low debt, minimal internal conflicts, and reduced vulnerability to international war, specifically mentioning Indonesia, Vietnam, and India as favorable options.


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