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The CIA, according to a report from the Spanish newspaper El Mundo, has warned European governments that Russia is preparing to launch drone strikes on France, Spain and Italy from the sea.
Getting into it: A source close to Lithuania’s defense ministry told El Mundo that Russia could fire a Gerbera drone packed with explosives off the water and use it to set a blaze, wreck equipment sitting out in the open or force a port or airport to close for a while. The Gerbera carries a payload of about 9 to 11 pounds and can fly up to 372 miles. The report said all three countries could be targeted because they have political campaigns or elections coming up next year and “radical forces” that could take advantage of public fatigue over Ukraine.
Lithuania reportedly found out about the scheme following a late-August trip to Moscow by CIA Director John Ratcliffe. Several defense analysts told the paper they knew of a CIA report making the rounds at foreign ministries across Europe, though its existence hasn’t been independently verified. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys told Reuters on Wednesday that allied intelligence points to Russia considering attacks on critical infrastructure, saying there are “some considerations on the Russian side to escalate horizontally, so to say, or geographically.”
Last week, Danish intelligence added its own warning, saying Russia is likely to ramp up hybrid attacks and that there is a “low but growing risk” Moscow could launch a limited military attack on one or more NATO countries that border it, such as long-range strikes on infrastructure used to support Ukraine or a small incursion by troops with no insignia on their uniforms.
The warnings landed just hours after a Starlink satellite station in central Poland went up in flames, cutting internet to multiple institutions, the Ukrainian military among them. Polish Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski called it deliberate sabotage and said that while no one has been identified as responsible, “many signs suggest this aligns with Russia’s new doctrine of attack.”
Another view: Still, some officials and analysts have pushed back on the warnings, arguing Russia is in no position to take on NATO while its military is bogged down in Ukraine. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna dismissed the talk, saying “we don’t see that Russia is able and even preparing for some kind of active military aggression against NATO or the European countries.” US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker cautioned against “overreacting to any sort of hybrid activity,” adding that the number of incidents doesn’t suggest a conflict is starting.
The think tank CSIS estimates Russia has suffered 1.4 million battlefield casualties, including as many as 450,000 dead, between February 2022 and June 2026, with monthly casualties of 30,000 to 34,000 this year outpacing recruitment of roughly 27,000 a month. Russia has also lost more than 14,000 armored combat vehicles and 2,100 artillery pieces, according to open-source counts. Moscow, for its part, denies it has any plans to pick a fight with NATO.
