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US Patriot missile stocks in Europe have fallen to what one defense official calls “beyond critical” levels, drained by the Iran war and leaving NATO thin against any Russian ballistic missile attack.

Getting into it: In a report by the Associated Press, a US defense official in Europe and a NATO official said American forces there “definitely” do not have enough Patriots to stop a sustained ballistic missile attack and would have “very limited” capability against even a single strike or a stray Russian missile that goes off course.

If Russia hit a military headquarters or a power plant in Europe, the US official said, NATO could end up where Ukraine already is, forced “to take punch after punch in the mouth.” The ATACMS stockpile is critically low too, though the wider ammunition situation is not as bad, since European militaries field their own long-range weapons like Taurus and Storm Shadows.

Despite all of this, the Pentagon and NATO both deny there is a problem. Army Col. Martin O’Donnell, a senior NATO military spokesperson, said it is “simply not the case” that Patriot numbers in Europe are beyond critical, and that the alliance can “block punches” while still donating munitions to Ukraine. Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell called the shortage claims “false,” saying, “We have everything required to strike at the time and place of the President’s choosing. Across multiple combatant commands, we have already executed successful operations while maintaining a deep, ready arsenal to defend our people and our interests.”

This all comes as a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that the Iran conflict has consumed roughly 65% of American Patriot stocks (about 1,500 of the country’s 2,330 interceptors). In the first month of the war alone, the US fired more than 850 Tomahawks, more than 1,000 Patriot and THAAD missiles, and more than 1,300 tactical ballistic missiles. Patriots matter because they are among the few systems that can stop Russia’s advanced ballistic missiles.