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A former top NATO official has warned that Iran holds significant leverage in the conflict with the US due to the disruption of global oil supplies from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Some shit you should know before you dig in: If you’re unaware, the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most vital maritime chokepoints in the world. Located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, this narrow waterway, which is only about 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, handles roughly 20% of the world’s petroleum and about a third of all seaborne oil shipments. Every day, roughly 100 oil tankers and merchant vessels pass through it, transporting crude oil from major producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait to markets in Asia, Europe, and beyond. Since the conflict with Iran broke out, there have been almost no vessels moving through the strait over concerns that they could become “legitimate targets” for Iran. Occasionally, Iran allows some vessels to transit, with reports that some are paying “tolls” to the Iranian government for safe passage.

What’s going on now: In a notable development, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander James Stavridis said Iran is holding onto what he described as its “high-value cards” in the ongoing conflict. According to Stavridis, those cards are the Strait of Hormuz closure and roughly 1,000 pounds of enriched uranium. He added, “So, they still have cards to play.” That closure has significantly impacted global markets, with some analysts warning that if the disruptions continue, oil prices could hit $200 a barrel, which would put significant pressure on Trump as both the US and global economy would be hit by shockwaves.

Despite Stavridis’ position, retired Army Gen. Jack Keane offered a far more optimistic outlook on the conflict’s duration, saying, “I think we’re going to wrap this operation up… in likely less than 60 days,” while stressing that the campaign has been “systematic, deliberate work.”

All of this is unfolding amid escalating pressure from Trump, who has issued warnings and set a tight timeline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the US begins striking critical infrastructure across Iran. Despite those threats, Iran hasn’t publicly budged and is still refusing to make a deal.