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An adviser to a top Iranian official has threatened to close the Bab al-Mandeb strait amid escalating tensions with the US.

Some shit you should know before you dig in: If you’re unaware, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is a narrow maritime chokepoint located between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa, linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and ultimately the Indian Ocean. It serves as a critical corridor for ships traveling between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, particularly for vessels heading to and from the Suez Canal. Roughly 10–12% of global trade passes through the strait each year (including a significant share of containerized cargo from Asia to Europe and roughly 5% of the world’s oil and refined petroleum products).

What’s going on now: In a notable development, an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali Akbar Velayati, warned that Iran and its regional proxies could treat the Bab al-Mandeb the same way it has approached the Strait of Hormuz (suggesting that the key shipping lane could be deliberately disrupted) if tensions with the US escalate further. He implied that Iran itself wouldn’t need direct control of the strait to impact it, but could instead rely on its regional network of aligned forces to carry out the threat.

The group most likely to act on that warning would be the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, which are on the northeastern side of the strait and have both the geographic position and military capability to interfere with shipping. In the past, the Houthis have targeted commercial vessels with drones and missiles, forcing shipping companies to reroute and insurers to pull coverage (effectively halting traffic without needing a formal “closure”).

The Houthis have already hinted at this scenario before, previously warning they could close the Bab al-Mandeb if regional conflict intensifies or if Gulf states join military actions against Iran. So far, those threats have not materialized into a full shutdown, but their past actions in the Red Sea demonstrate that the capability (and willingness) to disrupt traffic is very real.

All of this is unfolding at a time when the Strait of Hormuz is already restricted, creating strain on global energy markets and supply chains. If the Bab al-Mandeb was also disrupted, it would compound those problems significantly, squeezing both major transit chokepoints at once and intensifying economic pressure worldwide.